2016 featured one of the most catastrophic polling errors in American political history.
Democrats are worried that history could repeat itself in 2020.
And that became clear when Joe Biden shook his head in disbelief when this key swing state poll came out.
In the Real Clear Politics polling average, Joe Biden holds a 9.6 percent lead over President Trump.
Real Clear Politics also shows Biden holding a 6.2 percent lead in the key state of Wisconsin.
Hillary Clinton held a similar lead in Wisconsin heading into the 2016 election and this margin was one reason Clinton famously never stepped foot in the state.
On election night, Wisconsin was the first of the famed “blue wall” states to flip to red and once that happened it became clear Donald Trump would win the election.
Are the pollsters getting the race wrong again in 2020?
The one polling outfit that showed Donald Trump winning Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 – the Trafalgar Group – just released a new poll of Wisconsin that showed President Trump in a statistical tie with Joe Biden 46 percent to 45 percent.
Breitbart detailed how Trafalgar Group’s polls stood out from the rest.
“A Marquette University Poll conducted between June 14 and June 18 gave Biden an eight-point lead. A CNBC/Change Research Poll conducted between June 12 and June 14 gave Biden a four-point lead. A New York Times/Siena University Poll conducted between June 8 and June 15 gave Biden an 11-point lead. A Fox News poll conducted between May 30 and June 2 gave Biden a nine-point lead,” Breitbart reports.
One big difference between Trafalgar Group and the other polling outfits is Trafalgar narrowed their survey to likely voters whereas other pollsters just sampled registered voters.
Breitbart reports that “…among the polls that had a sample size large enough to identify a margin of error, only the Trafalgar Group Poll focused on likely general election voters, the most reliable indicator of how people will actually vote. The Marquette University Poll, the New York Times/Siena University Poll, and the Fox News Poll all sampled registered voters only, which means the results included some respondents who are registered to vote but not likely to do so.”
In 2016, some of the state polling was off because pollsters undersampled voters without a college degree.
The Trafalgar Group polls raise questions about if polling outfits failed to learn from their mistakes.
Some Trump supporters believe these polls are rigged, but while polls can be wrong, they are not skewed on purpose to depress Trump support.
In 1948, 1976, 1988, and 2000 elections, the incumbent party erased massive polling deficits to win or make the election very close.
There is still plenty of time for President Trump to get back in the game.
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