Americans are wondering if the polls showing Joe Biden leading Donald Trump are accurate.
Donald Trump says he does not believe the polls.
And the only pollster that got 2016 right gave this jaw-dropping forecast about 2020.
In 2016 only the Trafalgar Group polls correctly showed that Donald Trump would win Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Other pollsters showed Hillary Clinton easily carrying those two states.
All the so-called “major” polls show a similar story in 2020 with Joe Biden far ahead nationally and in the key battleground states,
But in an interview on the Kyle Olson show Trafalgar Group founder Robert Cahaly claimed that pollsters were setting themselves up for another historic failure.
Cahaly cited his companies polls of Michigan which showed Biden leading the President by one point.
But Cahaly pointed to the demographics of the voters that had yet to make up their minds were favorable to President Trump.
“I could look in those undecideds, and those third-party and tell you I believe those people will vote for Trump,” Cahaly added. “We had him down by one, but I believe Trump will win Michigan as of the last poll we did.”
Cahaly also told Olson that President Trump’s polling followed a rhythm that saw the numbers go “down, up, down, and now it’s back trending in a positive way for Trump,” Cahaly added that the President was on an “upswing.”
In the interview Cahaly also claimed that the mainstream media’s polls were unreliable for multiple reasons.
One – Cahaly stated – was the fact that he believed Republicans were not responding to pollsters.
“We’ve seen a disproportionate amount of Republicans unwilling to participate in polls and you have to really work hard to get a Republican to answer,” Cahaly added.
Cahaly went to theorize that pollsters incentive in this day and age was to produce polls that fed a narrative as opposed to accurately capturing the sentiment of the nation.
“They have no incentive to fix it,” Cahaly explained. “Polling is not a meritocracy.”
“If you’re working for a party or a campaign or for a media outlet, they care more about are you reinforcing their narrative of the election than did you get it right,” Cahaly added.
Cahaly stated that there was a significant enthusiasm gap between Biden and Trump voters where Trump voters feel threatened to share their views in public so voting was the only way they can register their support for President Trump.
Trump voters – Cahaly – claimed – “cannot wait — that voting booth is where they are going to vent this frustration”
Cahaly also detailed how the polls may work against Biden as his supporters – who are not motivated out of love for Biden – may not turnout in significant enough numbers if they believe the polls show a Biden landslide.
“They are in a fight and they don’t understand it,” Cahaly said of the Biden campaign.
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