Joe Biden’s political fortunes are sinking fast.
With his support crumbling, Biden is in serious danger of losing his reelection by a landslide.
And now, Donald Trump just dealt Joe Biden a crushing defeat in one shocking poll.
Donald Trump has built a reputation of consistently outperforming the polls.
From his first announcement that he was running for President in the summer of 2015, Trump has repeatedly defied all political odds, regularly racking up wins despite polls showing he should have lost.
The polls were slanted against him for much of the GOP primary process in 2016.
And in the general election, Trump routinely trailed Hillary Clinton in both state-level and national polls, which consistently had Trump on track to lose in a virtual landslide.
And yet, the exact opposite happened as Trump ended up flipping a series of states that hadn’t voted Republican since the 1980s.
What’s more, Trump outperformed the polls again in 2020.
Throughout that election cycle, opinion polls showed Trump losing to Biden by landslide margins – so much so that some political operatives thought Biden would win over 400 electoral votes and the popular vote by as much as 8-10 points.
Biden was expected to crush Donald Trump in a landslide not seen since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
And yet the final results showed Trump massively outperforming the polls in swing states across the country.
This has given rise to the “shy Trump voter” effect, whereby political analysts now recognize that Trump is favored to ultimately do better than what’s reflected in any of the polls.
Assuming that trend continues and he’s the Republican nominee would mean that Trump is on track to crush Joe Biden in 2024.
Fox News reports, “Former President Trump has a three-point lead over President Biden in a hypothetical rematch in 2024, according to an Emerson College poll.
The poll was released on Tuesday and shows Trump with a 44% to 41% lead over Biden in the hypothetical matchup.”
If Trump is actually leading in opinion polls against Joe Biden along with his long track record of beating his polling averages, then this suggests he’s currently favored to destroy Biden in the next election.
And if Trump’s polling advantage comes anywhere close to the outperformance he saw in 2020, then 2024 could shape up to be the biggest Republican landslide in 40 years.
In 2020, Trump ended up doing about 2.7 points better than the final RealClearPolitics polling average against Joe Biden.
And a 2.7 point advantage for Trump – on top of his current 3-point polling lead over Biden – would mean Trump could win the popular vote by as much as 6 points in 2024.
That would translate into an over 10 point shift to the Right from 2020, allowing Trump to win the electoral collapse with a Red Wave unlike anything seen in generations.
