The 2020 election wasn’t a normal election in a massive way.
It’s clear that things were significantly off.
There’s one smoking gun fact that the Democrats want to keep hidden at all costs.
Based on state and national polls, The New York Times gave former President Donald Trump just 15% odds of winning on election night in 2016.
Yet somehow the polling was even more inaccurate for the 2020 election.
President polls for November’s election were the least accurate in 40 years, a new report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research showed.
They also reported that state polls were the worst in the past 20 years which was as far back as records go.
However, the report could not explain the reason for these inaccuracies.
“We could rule some things out, but it’s hard to prove beyond a certainty what happened,” said Josh Clinton, a Vanderbilt University professor and chair of the 19-member election task force, Politico reported. “Based on what we know about polling, what we know about politics, we have some good prime suspects as to what may be going on.”
The polls consistently over-represent Joe Biden’s support and underestimated Trump’s popularity.
The report found that polls in the final two weeks before the election were off by about 4.5 points.
“There was a systematic error that was found in terms of the overstatement for Democratic support across the board,” Josh Clinton said. “It didn’t matter what type of poll you were doing, whether you’re interviewing by phone or Internet or whatever. And it didn’t matter what type of race, whether President Trump was on the ballot or was not on the ballot.”
The overconfidence was also seen in down-ballot races. Democrats expected to gain seats in the House but instead, the Republicans boosted their support by 12 seats in the House and held every state legislature.
The report looked over 2,858 polls, of which 529 were of the national presidential race while 1,572 were on state levels.
This has experts worried that they won’t be able to accurately predict the elections in 2022 and 2024.
“How certain are we that we can fix this in the future? Well, it’s unclear,” Josh Clinton said. “We’ll have to wait and see what happens — which isn’t a particularly reassuring position. But I think that’s the honest answer.”
America’s most accurate bellwether counties were also off in the 2020 election.
Out of the 19 pivot counties across America that have correctly picked the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one, Clallam County in Washington state, voted for Biden. The other 18 voted for Trump.
It’s clear that the 2020 election was different in a significant way from the previous elections.
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