Democrats are convinced that President Donald Trump will lose in 2020.
They are convinced the blue-collar workers that gave Trump a major edge will turn on him.
And there is one surprising election that will decide if that is true or not.
Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District is located in the Pittsburgh-area.
It is a largely blue-collar district that Trump carried by 20 points during the 2016 election.
Now there is a special election taking place to replace former Congressman Tim Murphy, who resigned after he was caught asking a woman he was having an affair with to get an abortion.
So far Republicans have spent over $9 million supporting the Republican candidate, Rick Saccone.
President Trump has also been publicly supporting Saccone and is scheduled to hold a rally with him just days before the election.
On the other side, Democrats have been pushing hard for their candidate Conor Lamb, with Joe Biden stumping for Lamb at a labor union-supported rally.
The reason both Republicans and Democrats are so worried about this race is that it will likely show the mood of the electorate that Trump dubbed the “silent majority” who were fed up with the status quo.
If Republicans lose this seat, it will signal to Democrats that President Trump has lost his blue-collar base.
On the other side, if the Republicans win, it will make it clear that blue-collar workers approve of the President, and that they will very likely support Republicans in 2018, and then the President again in 2020.
As reported the National Journal:
“Republicans are learning an uncomfortable reality about the political environment for 2018: Tax cuts, conservative culture-war staples, and even Nancy Pelosi herself probably won’t be enough to overcome the deep hole that President Trump has put them in. With the White House awash in scandal and struggling to articulate its agenda, the political mood has turned so grim that Republicans are in danger of losing an upcoming special election in the heart of Trump country.
That’s the lesson to draw from the surprisingly competitive campaign Democrat Conor Lamb is running in a Pittsburgh-area district Trump easily carried by 20 points, surviving millions of dollars in outside GOP attack ads portraying Lamb as a liberal in disguise. Even a close loss in such a reliably conservative area would raise red flags that Democrats are on the verge of a major landslide in the November midterms.
If Lamb wins, it would be an unmistakable verdict that the healthy economy and Trump tax cuts will be overshadowed by the administration’s dysfunction and roiling suburban anger. Though the economy may play to the GOP’s advantage, the culture wars have turned squarely in the Democratic Party’s favor—and that’s what matters in today’s politics.”
The election is next week, and if there’s anything President Trump’s election has taught us, it’s that it could go either way.
Do you think Rick Saccone will beat out the Democrats?
Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.